Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x3404…82b0 crypto 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$39 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$16
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$1
other 19% −$106
crypto 15% +$23
sports 8% +$41
finance 6% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 29 -8.9% -17.6% 52% 38% -9.7%
≤90d 39 +0.7% -8.9% 59% 49% -1.2%
all 40 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 48% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 48% -12.3%
10% -19.7% 45% -20.7%
15% -27.4% 42% -28.3%
20% -34.5% 35% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage100d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 27 $595 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 25 $120 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +3%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12AM ET May 31 $21 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5AM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 25 $10 +$10 +100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20? May 25 $112 +$48 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8AM ET May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET May 16 $10 +$10 +104%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 16 $108 +$41 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 19? Apr 20 $51 +$9 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 18 $13 −$12 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 08 $7 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Apr 04 $16 +$5 +29%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 23 $153 −$153 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY 21¢ $1 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 27h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $120 2d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $120 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $119 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $119 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $2.52 (match) · 93 history records