Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
34 0x3407…f5be crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$96 (+2%) realized +$119 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate69%33W / 15L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day71.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$164
other 1% −$10
sports 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.8% -7.0% 69% 52% -5.6%
≤30d 48 +2.8% -7.0% 69% 52% -5.6%
≤90d 48 +2.8% -7.0% 69% 52% -5.6%
all 48 +2.8% -7.0% 69% 52% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 52% -5.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 29% -14.6%
15% -24.0% 17% -22.9%
20% -31.4% 6% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$26 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses33 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)48 / 52
History coverage2d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day71.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Down 64¢ 50¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $152 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $252 −$23 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $204 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$73 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $282 +$42 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$14 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $102 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $523 −$122 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $163 +$28 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $316 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $263 +$60 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $242 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $184 +$69 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $303 +$14 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $122 +$50 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$26 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$26 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$14 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$20 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$9 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$8 -58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $28 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $103 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $57 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $51 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $105 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $102 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $209 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $20 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $117 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $117 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $51 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $29 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $221 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $51 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $241 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $54 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $41 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.84 · official $17.66 · 160 history records