Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3409…6839
sports · 128 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$74 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$59 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$237
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses54 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions9
Markets (closed)119 / 128
History coverage582d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 9 History 119 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days+$353
14 days+$388
30 days+$389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Curaçao 50¢ 46¢ $50 $47 −$4 (-7%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $46 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Over 44¢ 46¢ $44 $46 +$2 (+3%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 30¢ 28¢ $30 $28 −$3 (-8%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-11%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Curaçao leading at halftime? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-27%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $89 $0 −$89 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $53 +$148 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $91 +$112 +124%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $96 +$106 +109%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $14 +$86 +596%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $40 +$60 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $42 +$58 +140%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $42 +$58 +140%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $90 −$89 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 +$10 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$13 -44%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$35 +170%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 01 $405 $0 -0%
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 22 $165 $0 -0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 17 $91 +$2 +2%
Over $10M committed to the Printr public sale? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 16 $809 +$70 +9%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $1,080 +$180 +17%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 01 $32 +$1 +4%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $5 −$1 -27%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 29 $15 −$6 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 25? Mar 25 $18 −$16 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 25? Mar 25 $15 −$13 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $16 −$8 -51%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 25 $910 +$24 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 25? Mar 24 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 23 $1,281 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22? Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23? Mar 23 $43 −$23 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23? Mar 23 $19 +$52 +274%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23? Mar 22 $35 +$3 +9%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $10 +$41 +415%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $276 +$3 +1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $40 −$38 -95%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Mar 22 $40 +$52 +130%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22? Mar 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 22 $286 −$286 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22? Mar 22 $80 +$57 +71%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5) Mar 22 $70 +$59 +85%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 22 $357 +$66 +19%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 21 $115 −$15 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$211
sports 23% +$131
crypto 17% −$245
politics 5% −$66
world 5% −$86
weather 2% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $49 57m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 58m
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 50¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $45 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $48 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 24h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $33 24h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 24h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 24h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $40 24h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $42 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $42 24h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $49 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 25h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $1 26h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $33 26h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +44.1% +30.4% 47% 47% +36.2%
≤30d 21 +43.9% +30.2% 48% 43% +16.0%
≤90d 74 +13.4% +2.6% 43% 31% -7.7%
all 119 +10.0% -0.5% 45% 29% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 29% -9.3%
10% -10.0% 27% -18.0%
15% -18.7% 22% -25.9%
20% -26.7% 19% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.98 · official $236.98 (match) · 627 history records