Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:11:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x340c…f130 crypto 121 markets active 1d ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,007 (-3%) realized −$1,007 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate56%67W / 53L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$153
7 days−$286
14 days−$286
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$720
weather 3% −$204
sports 1% −$81
other 0% −$63
politics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤30d 16 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 38% -27.0%
≤90d 16 +2.0% -7.7% 38% 38% -27.0%
all 120 -9.2% -17.8% 56% 31% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 31% -12.0%
10% -25.7% 16% -20.4%
15% -32.9% 12% -28.1%
20% -39.5% 10% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$87 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,007
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses67 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage224d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $84 −$82 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$50 +141%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $222 −$149 -67%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $246 −$126 -51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $193 −$78 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$62 +168%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $102 +$170 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $54 +$50 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 +$22 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $54 −$34 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $80 +$55 +69%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $152 −$77 -51%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $54 −$4 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$9 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Mar 06 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $5 +$3 +53%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 1? Mar 01 $31 −$26 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $327 −$265 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 28? Feb 28 $190 +$106 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 27? Feb 27 $181 +$43 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 26? Feb 26 $147 +$28 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 25? Feb 25 $255 −$164 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 25? Feb 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $204 −$7 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $186 +$36 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $528 −$486 -92%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $1,138 +$105 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $682 +$17 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $541 +$120 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $1,054 +$49 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $1,093 +$74 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $917 +$136 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $10 +$4 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 17? Feb 16 $460 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 16? Feb 16 $826 +$47 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $615 +$19 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 15? Feb 15 $1,728 −$35 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $4 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 14? Feb 13 $452 −$23 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Feb 13 $1 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 13 $3 −$2 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 13 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $602 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $20 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $86 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 40¢ $36 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $26 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $39 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 75¢ $39 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $36 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 73¢ $61 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $52 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $29 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $32 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 45h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1387 history records