Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x340d…a395 crypto 925 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$220 (-1%) realized −$141 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate61%551W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$729now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$278
14 days−$381
30 days−$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$428
crypto 9% $0
sports 5% −$5
other 1% +$45
world 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -0.9% -10.4% 91% 2% -13.8%
≤30d 374 -3.4% -12.6% 80% 2% -11.9%
≤90d 900 +4.9% -5.1% 61% 24% -11.3%
all 900 +4.9% -5.1% 61% 24% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 24% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 14% -19.8%
15% -22.5% 5% -27.6%
20% -30.1% 5% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$729
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses551 / 349
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)900 / 925
History coverage88d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 900 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? No 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? No 99¢ 99¢ $49 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? No 96¢ 90¢ $48 $45 −$3 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Yes 37¢ 94¢ $7 $19 +$11 (+149%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? No 93¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 91¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 15? No 93¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 90¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? No 94¢ 88¢ $9 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? No 95¢ 83¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? No 90¢ 80¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 90¢ 20¢ $9 $2 −$7 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 86¢ 6¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 254 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $195 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 67°F or below on June Jun 15 $148 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 15 $20 −$5 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 14? Jun 15 $77 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $437 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $238 −$88 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $193 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 −$4 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $147 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $73 −$72 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 8m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 10m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 45m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 50m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $729.45 · official $729.09 (match) · 2824 history records