Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:27:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3413…8ff2 sports 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$20,586 (-11%) realized −$14,832 · open −$5,754
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%49W / 66L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,557per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$3,021est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18,065now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$914
7 days+$3,266
14 days−$7,348
30 days−$17,306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$21,558
world 7% −$3,441
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +14.5% +3.6% 45% 45% -6.0%
≤30d 91 -0.7% -10.1% 42% 42% -20.2%
≤90d 108 -2.7% -12.0% 41% 41% -20.5%
all 115 -4.0% -13.1% 43% 39% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 39% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 39% -28.2%
15% -29.0% 38% -35.2%
20% -36.0% 38% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,827) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,611 vs −$1,488 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$18,065
Realized−$14,832
Unrealized−$5,754
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses49 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$3,021
Open positions4
Markets (closed)115 / 119
History coverage172d
Avg bet$1,557
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Power Rangers 46¢ 100¢ $4,115 $8,940 +$4,826 (+117%)
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? No 63¢ 36¢ $10,020 $5,724 −$4,296 (-43%)
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner summer bear 42¢ 32¢ $3,876 $2,928 −$948 (-24%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 15¢ 7¢ $982 $472 −$509 (-52%)
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs 4ikibamboni 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,314 +$991 +75%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $2,112 +$1,680 +80%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $1,500 +$1,497 +100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $1,275 +$3,820 +300%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $4,122 −$4,122 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,138 +$2,861 +134%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $900 −$900 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,447 −$2,447 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,331 −$2,297 -99%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $82 +$151 +186%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $3,920 −$3,920 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $2,360 −$2,356 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $4,023 +$6,563 +163%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $5,334 +$5,805 +109%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2,708 +$4,434 +164%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $4,504 −$4,497 -100%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,827 +$3,882 +212%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,328 +$912 +69%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $6,971 −$6,968 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2,927 +$2,501 +85%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,095 −$1,094 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $1,440 +$1,560 +108%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 17 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $2,236 +$2,758 +123%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $2,523 +$6,787 +269%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,184 +$2,812 +237%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $1,020 +$1,977 +194%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $172 −$172 -100%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $870 −$870 -100%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $160 +$282 +176%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $825 −$825 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $81 +$159 +197%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $660 −$652 -99%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $840 −$840 -100%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $508 +$284 +56%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $174 −$170 -98%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Team Bald (BO1) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $541 −$541 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $814 −$811 -100%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Yellow Submarine (BO1) - The International Euro Jun 10 $1,186 +$791 +67%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Open Qual Jun 10 $31 +$64 +206%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $367 −$366 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $147 13m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $259 13m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $217 13m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $126 13m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $21 13m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $133 13m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $420 13m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $126 14m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $84 14m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $51 15m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $7 15m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $35 15m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $36 15m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $3 15m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $217 15m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $2 15m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $5 16m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $81 16m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $4 16m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $2 16m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $126 16m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $11 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $1 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $2 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $100 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $18 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $7 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $3 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $66 17m
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 42¢ $4 17m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,064.51 · official $20,341.79 · 1453 history records