Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3413…22e7 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$5
other 23% +$1
weather 17% +$1
crypto 6% +$1
economics 5% +$1
sports 3% +$12
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -3.9% -13.0% 11% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 9 -3.9% -13.0% 11% 0% -11.1%
all 24 +2.3% -7.5% 54% 4% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 4% -8.0%
10% -16.3% 4% -16.8%
15% -24.4% 4% -24.8%
20% -31.8% 4% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.8 per $1 lost it wins $2.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage471d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $68 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $40 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $42 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $26 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or higher on March 23? Mar 22 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $87000 on Mar 21? Mar 21 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? Mar 19 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 18 $29 $0 +2%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $29 $0 -1%
2025 February hottest on record? Mar 12 $29 $0 +1%
UCLA vs. Northwestern Mar 05 $17 +$12 +67%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 4? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 4? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $17 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 12h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $15 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $30 22d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $3 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $12 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $24 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $12 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $25 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 46¢ $13 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $25 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $26 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes $5 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes $5 25d
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1 360d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records