Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3416…adaa sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$315 (-3%) realized −$330 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%49W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$188est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days−$504
14 days−$1,277
30 days−$1,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$1,035
other 3% −$147
world 1% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +4.3% -5.7% 36% 36% -21.4%
≤30d 136 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 36% -24.2%
≤90d 136 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 36% -24.2%
all 136 -14.0% -22.2% 36% 36% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 36% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 33% -31.5%
15% -36.4% 28% -38.1%
20% -42.7% 25% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$44 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses49 / 87
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage13d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 48¢ 62¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $59 −$58 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$19 +64%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $44 +$51 +116%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $71 +$52 +73%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $77 +$24 +31%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $46 +$27 +58%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $76 +$38 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $145 −$28 -19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $205 +$117 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $57 +$32 +56%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $76 +$29 +38%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 +$154 +152%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 +$53 +512%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $82 +$137 +167%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $88 −$86 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $255 +$131 +51%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$32 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $49 +$16 +33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $46 +$89 +192%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$37 +38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 +$98 +397%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $46 +$82 +178%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 48¢ $51 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $59 3h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 82¢ $50 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 49¢ $30 6h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 25¢ $30 22h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 13¢ $15 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $91 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 82¢ $4 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $44 25h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $100 26h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 24¢ $23 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 28h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 28h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $71 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $101 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $77 31h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 48¢ $36 37h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 48¢ $36 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 15¢ $15 38h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 57¢ $30 38h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 93¢ $114 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 61¢ $76 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 13¢ $29 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 70¢ $157 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 51¢ $117 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 71¢ $152 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.10 · official $65.10 (match) · 262 history records