Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x3417…ee72 other 51 markets active 16h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$34 (+6%) realized +$53 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$35
14 days+$31
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$8
sports 12% +$19
crypto 4% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +43.3% +29.7% 45% 42% +4.4%
≤30d 38 +39.0% +25.8% 42% 39% +0.8%
≤90d 38 +39.0% +25.8% 42% 39% +0.8%
all 38 +39.0% +25.8% 42% 39% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.8% 39% +0.8%
10% +13.8% 39% -8.8%
15% +2.8% 39% -17.6%
20% -7.3% 37% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$53
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)38 / 51
History coverage22d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $40 $55 +$15 (+37%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-10%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 42¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-19%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 64¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+46%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $40 $8 −$32 (-79%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 82¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+44%)
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 32¢ 46¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+45%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+70%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 22¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $21 +$9 +42%
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $16 +$26 +157%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $6 +$6 +101%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +84%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 $0 -3%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 +$4 +98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 +$8 +97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +39%
Cédric Bakambu: 1+ assists Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -33%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -53%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -8%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 +$12 +151%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Jun 16 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +139%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 $0 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$10 +238%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$13 +1290%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $82 −$3 -3%
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 03 $10 $0 -3%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $16 +$11 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 15h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $42 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 18h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 20h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $9 20h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $13 20h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 48¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 21h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 21h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.55 · official $215.55 (match) · 125 history records