Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x3419…3896 sports 71 markets active 3d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$5,235 (+31%) realized +$5,237 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%39W / 31L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$212
14 days+$6
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$4,853
other 8% +$299
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -18.9% -26.6% 60% 50% -17.9%
≤30d 47 -37.1% -43.1% 38% 36% -10.9%
≤90d 68 -10.3% -18.9% 54% 53% +1.4%
all 70 -8.4% -17.1% 56% 54% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 54% +18.3%
10% -25.1% 50% +7.0%
15% -32.3% 49% -3.3%
20% -38.9% 30% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$76 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$5,237
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses39 / 31
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage96d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $418 +$190 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $504 −$500 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $164 +$73 +45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $201 +$88 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $178 +$86 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $401 +$31 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $201 +$43 +21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $46 +$33 +73%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 +$113 +114%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $21 +$16 +76%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) Jun 08 $151 +$94 +62%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $22 +$11 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $240 +$287 +120%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,014 +$871 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 30 $45 −$45 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-21? May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson (Bantamweight, Main May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 30 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 30 $178 −$178 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 30 $175 −$175 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $97 +$170 +174%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $49 +$12 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $23 +$11 +48%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $46 +$33 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $202 +$92 +46%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $101 +$40 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $101 +$46 +46%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $33 +$14 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $609 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $418 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 70¢ $504 3d
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) BUY Hanwha Life Esports 68¢ $164 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $264 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $201 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 66¢ $178 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 69¢ $432 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $300 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $23 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $201 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 55¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $46 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 56¢ $21 9d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $100 10d
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+1.5) BUY Bilibili Gaming 61¢ $151 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 53¢ $51 10d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 67¢ $22 10d
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Anyones Legend 65¢ $101 16d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 45¢ $240 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,885 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 18d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 100¢ $267 18d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 36¢ $78 18d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 36¢ $19 18d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 80¢ $49 27d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 67¢ $23 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.19 · official $8.19 (match) · 139 history records