Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x341b…b929 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$29 (-4%) realized +$68 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$125
weather 18% +$7
other 9% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +9.7% -0.8% 71% 57% -17.3%
≤30d 8 -4.0% -13.2% 62% 50% -31.9%
≤90d 8 -4.0% -13.2% 62% 50% -31.9%
all 8 -4.0% -13.2% 62% 50% -31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 50% -31.9%
10% -21.5% 38% -38.4%
15% -29.1% 12% -44.3%
20% -36.0% 0% -49.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$31 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage9d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $100 $134 +$34 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? No 78¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $102 −$38 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +45%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $41 −$4 -10%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $30 +$8 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +8%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 6m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $106 8m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 28¢ $64 49m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 38¢ $102 58m
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 78¢ $101 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 6¢ $3 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 96¢ $38 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 89¢ $11 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 33¢ $33 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 19h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $31 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $38 22h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 78¢ $30 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 68¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY No 90¢ $10 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.06 · official $272.91 · 22 history records