Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x341f…fcf8 sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day77.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$7
other 21% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 67% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 67% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 15 -12.0% -20.4% 67% 0% -10.9%
all 15 -12.0% -20.4% 67% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 0% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -35.0% 0% -27.2%
20% -41.4% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day77.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Under 83¢ 78¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $87 −$5 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $202 +$3 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Under 83¢ $20 1m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $19 2m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 61¢ $36 8m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 8m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 58¢ $5 11m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $5 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $5 14m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 14m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 33¢ $3 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $3 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $10 39m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $5 40m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 87¢ $5 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 61¢ $0 48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 61¢ $20 48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 61¢ $6 48m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Under 63¢ $75 49m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $0 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $4 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $87 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $6 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $5 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $0 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 49¢ $5 58m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.79 · official $18.79 (match) · 142 history records