Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:37:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
34 0x3420…49b3 crypto 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$144 (-1%) realized −$144 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%97W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 41% −$4
other 26% −$123
politics 14% −$3
sports 9% −$16
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
world 1% +$1
finance 1% $0
weather 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 15 -13.5% -21.7% 60% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 123 -13.5% -21.7% 53% 6% -10.6%
all 175 -9.8% -18.4% 55% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 6% -10.2%
10% -26.2% 5% -18.8%
15% -33.3% 5% -26.7%
20% -39.9% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses97 / 78
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage120d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $125 $125 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 30? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 26 $88 $0 +0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $8 −$7 -98%
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 31 $83 $0 +0%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $230 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $98 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 29 $8 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $103 $0 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $260 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $124 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 27? May 28 $124 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $137 $0 +0%
Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Giorgio Tabacco May 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 26 $139 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? May 26 $139 $0 +0%
Kosice: Lukas Pokorny vs Tom Paris May 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Emiliana Arango May 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $135 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $135 $0 -0%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $62.50 Week of May 18 20 May 23 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $139 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $140 $0 +0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 19 $259 $0 -0%
Cervia: Sandro Kopp vs Max Alcala Gurri May 19 $8 +$5 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $128 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $135 $0 +0%
Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $136 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $135 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 14? May 15 $135 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $270 on May 13? May 12 $119 −$118 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $120 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9? May 10 $119 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $249 $0 -0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $244 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $120 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 7? May 08 $119 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $119 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $412.50 Week of June 22 2 BUY No 100¢ $125 1h
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $88 26d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 47¢ $8 26d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 27d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY Fluxo W7M 31¢ $4 27d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $86 27d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $86 27d
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 99¢ $11 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 28d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $103 29d
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Alejandro Tabilo 51¢ $8 29d
Will ByteDance have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $124 29d
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $124 29d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $124 29d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $124 29d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $124 30d
Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 31d
Vicenza: Jacopo Vasami vs Giorgio Tabacco BUY Giorgio Tabacco 26¢ $2 31d
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $139 31d
Will Hunor Kelemen be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $139 31d
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $139 31d
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 100¢ $139 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $139 32d
Kosice: Lukas Pokorny vs Tom Paris BUY Tom Paris 47¢ $5 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $135 33d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $135 33d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.06 · official $125.06 (match) · 348 history records