Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3423…fe57
other · 290 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11,471 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11,525 · open +$188
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,012
Realized−$11,525
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses114 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions24
Markets (closed)262 / 290
History coverage25d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day110.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%
Chart Positions 24 History 262 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$506
7 days−$4,613
14 days−$10,434
30 days−$11,525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $3,616 $4,310 +$695 (+19%)
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 63¢ 69¢ $113 $124 +$11 (+10%)
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 77¢ 84¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+8%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 18¢ $135 $54 −$81 (-60%)
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 49¢ 99¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $47 $40 −$7 (-15%)
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+7%)
Will NYC Mayor post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? Yes 20¢ 15¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? No 24¢ 78¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+229%)
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+37%)
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $468 $0 −$467 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $94 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38 +$6 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $309 +$103 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $531 +$185 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,238 +$137 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $699 −$281 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $92 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $18 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $261 −$111 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $322 −$116 -36%
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $422 +$70 +17%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $360 −$7 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $429 −$57 -13%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Ted Cruz post 180-199 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $383 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $907 +$173 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $701 +$379 +54%
Will NYC Mayor post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $144 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $160 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $75 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $73 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $956 −$510 -53%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $298 +$3 +1%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $671 +$87 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,058 −$96 -5%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,993 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $94 −$75 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 99% −$11,330
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $87 1h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 3h
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 3h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3h
Will Claude go down 12+ times in June? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3h
Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3h
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 3h
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $24 3h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,998 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $157 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 4h
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 4h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $207 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $41 5h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +2.1% -7.6% 45% 11% -22.9%
≤30d 262 -10.5% -19.1% 44% 9% -17.4%
≤90d 262 -10.5% -19.1% 44% 9% -17.4%
all 262 -10.5% -19.1% 44% 9% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.1% 9% -17.4%
10% -26.8% 5% -25.3%
15% ← realistic here -33.9% 5% -32.5%
20% -40.4% 4% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,012.38 · official $5,006.63 (match) · 3500 history records