Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x3426…679c sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$337 (+13%) realized +$458 · open −$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$421
other 8% +$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +37.6% +24.5% 86% 86% +28.4%
≤30d 7 +37.6% +24.5% 86% 86% +28.4%
≤90d 7 +37.6% +24.5% 86% 86% +28.4%
all 7 +37.6% +24.5% 86% 86% +28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 86% +28.4%
10% +12.6% 86% +16.1%
15% +1.7% 57% +4.9%
20% -8.3% 29% -5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$2 · ×50.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×300.48 per $1 lost it wins $300.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized+$458
Unrealized−$121
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 60¢ $1,094 $973 −$121 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $769 +$335 +44%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $344 +$94 +27%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $9 −$2 -24%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $10 +$7 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $211 +$125 +59%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $141 +$70 +50%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $101 +$34 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,105 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $769 6h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 24h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 25h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $344 32h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $337 43h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $211 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $141 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 100¢ $135 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 74¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $973.47 · official $973.47 (match) · 15 history records