Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:28:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x3427…0576 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$157 (+35%) realized +$160 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$171
14 days+$157
30 days+$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$76
sports 13% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +37.3% +24.2% 71% 64% +53.3%
≤30d 24 +27.8% +15.7% 62% 58% +31.7%
≤90d 24 +27.8% +15.7% 62% 58% +31.7%
all 24 +27.8% +15.7% 62% 58% +31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 58% +31.7%
10% +4.6% 58% +19.1%
15% -5.5% 54% +7.6%
20% -14.8% 33% -2.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)24 / 29
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$15 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 +$88 +344%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$54 +132%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$12 +46%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$21 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$8 +64%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$18 +350%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 17h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 41h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 71¢ $5 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 42h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 4d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 6d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 12d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.84 · official $96.87 (match) · 58 history records