Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x342f…58f8 sports 148 markets active 0h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$125 (-3%) realized −$112 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%73W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$17
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$69
other 27% −$49
crypto 14% −$25
economics 6% $0
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.9% -5.1% 55% 50% -14.4%
≤30d 24 +2.4% -7.4% 58% 50% -16.2%
≤90d 39 +44.6% +30.8% 49% 41% -16.5%
all 146 +17.8% +6.6% 50% 29% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 29% -12.3%
10% -3.6% 22% -20.7%
15% -12.9% 18% -28.4%
20% -21.4% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$112
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses73 / 73
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage534d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 70¢ 80¢ $24 $28 +$3 (+14%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 78¢ 36¢ $30 $14 −$16 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $15 −$14 -95%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $3 +$1 +44%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $30 +$14 +48%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $52 −$11 -21%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $21 −$6 -27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$5 -51%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$14 -69%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $8 +$1 +11%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $3 +$3 +100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $8 +$2 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$2 -41%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 −$4 -40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$7 +48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$1 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 +$17 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$9 -58%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $15 −$4 -24%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Apr 11 $1 −$1 -84%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Apr 11 $1 $0 +9%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 11 $3 −$2 -61%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 10 $7 +$13 +190%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $4 +$4 +101%
Kings vs. Warriors Apr 08 $2 $0 -22%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $2 +$1 +34%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $2 −$1 -43%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Apr 07 $5 −$1 -27%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-25? Mar 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 24 $10 +$1 +8%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-24? Jan 24 $17 −$17 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Coco Gauff vs Hailey Baptiste Jan 24 $5 $0 +8%
Rockets vs. 76ers Jan 23 $8 +$4 +55%
Australian Open Women's: Elena Rybakina vs Varvara Gracheva Jan 23 $20 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jan 21 $3 −$1 -29%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jan 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $20 −$19 -93%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $4 14m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $16 23m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $6 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 58m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 60¢ $11 58m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $25 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $10 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 3¢ $1 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $15 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $3 46h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $10 46h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 25¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 21¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 44¢ $14 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 65¢ $12 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 81¢ $26 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $6 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $30 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $3 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $10 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 42¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.60 · official $41.60 (match) · 507 history records