Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3430…14c2 crypto 754 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,435 (-7%) realized −$5,461 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%391W / 360L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day43.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$336
7 days−$303
14 days−$6,239
30 days−$6,539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$7,124
politics 9% +$622
other 1% +$116
sports 0% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -9.9% -18.5% 47% 47% -20.4%
≤30d 751 -7.1% -15.9% 52% 43% -17.8%
≤90d 751 -7.1% -15.9% 52% 43% -17.8%
all 751 -7.1% -15.9% 52% 43% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 43% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 42% -25.7%
15% -31.3% 42% -32.8%
20% -38.1% 39% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$75 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$5,461
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses391 / 360
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)751 / 754
History coverage29d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day43.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 51¢ 96¢ $30 $56 +$26 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 335 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$28 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $30 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.96 · official $43.49 · 1635 history records