trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | +13.4% | +2.6% | 58% | 37% | +16.8% |
| ≤30d | 19 | +13.4% | +2.6% | 58% | 37% | +16.8% |
| ≤90d | 19 | +13.4% | +2.6% | 58% | 37% | +16.8% |
| all | 19 | +13.4% | +2.6% | 58% | 37% | +16.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +2.6% | 37% | +16.8% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -7.2% | 26% | +5.7% |
| 15% | -16.2% | 21% | -4.6% |
| 20% | -24.4% | 16% | -13.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $44 | −$6 (-12%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 32¢ | 30¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | Yes | 43¢ | 28¢ | $10 | $7 | −$3 (-35%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 80¢ | 84¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 26¢ | 16¢ | $5 | $3 | −$2 (-39%) |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | No | 44¢ | 22¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-51%) |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? | No | 45¢ | 14¢ | $6 | $2 | −$4 (-70%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 23¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-70%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | No | 46¢ | 6¢ | $8 | $1 | −$7 (-87%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Yes | 20¢ | 1¢ | $23 | $1 | −$22 (-97%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? | Jun 14 | $24 | +$4 | +17% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$8 | +51% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 | Jun 14 | $17 | +$36 | +210% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | Jun 14 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$7 | +44% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? | Jun 14 | $154 | +$36 | +23% |
| Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$3 | -51% |
| Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $22 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? | Jun 14 | $4 | −$1 | -29% |
| Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -36% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary e | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -34% |
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +63% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | +7% |
| Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -17% |
| Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | -15% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | Jun 14 | $3 | +$1 | +16% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $10 | $0 | +3% |