Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3436…c291 world 27 markets active 2d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$24 (-12%) realized −$38 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%4W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$37
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$14
tech 14% −$22
other 14% −$1
politics 6% −$12
culture 5% +$3
finance 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -80.6% -82.5% 0% 0% -82.5%
≤30d 19 -32.4% -38.8% 21% 21% -34.2%
≤90d 19 -32.4% -38.8% 21% 21% -34.2%
all 19 -32.4% -38.8% 21% 21% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 21% -34.2%
10% -44.7% 21% -40.5%
15% -50.0% 16% -46.2%
20% -54.9% 16% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses4 / 15
Open positions8
Markets (closed)19 / 27
History coverage28d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 32¢ 84¢ $10 $26 +$16 (+164%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 41¢ 58¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 77¢ 82¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.? Yes 37¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -91%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -69%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 05 $7 −$7 -97%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? May 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 24 $5 +$11 +220%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $5 +$18 +353%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? May 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? May 21 $5 −$5 -96%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 21 $10 +$10 +96%
Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorn May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? May 20 $30 −$3 -11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? SELL Yes $0 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL Yes $0 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL Yes $2 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? SELL Yes $2 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? BUY Yes $5 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 40¢ $10 7d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 31¢ $7 12d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 15d
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 20d
Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 20d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes $5 21d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 22d
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 25¢ $5 22d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 23d
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? BUY Yes $2 24d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? SELL Yes $0 24d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 68¢ $23 24d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25d
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 26d
Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? BUY Yes $5 27d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.05 · official $72.05 (match) · 38 history records