trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -80.6% | -82.5% | 0% | 0% | -82.5% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -32.4% | -38.8% | 21% | 21% | -34.2% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -32.4% | -38.8% | 21% | 21% | -34.2% |
| all | 19 | -32.4% | -38.8% | 21% | 21% | -34.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.8% | 21% | -34.2% |
| 10% | -44.7% | 21% | -40.5% |
| 15% | -50.0% | 16% | -46.2% |
| 20% | -54.9% | 16% | -51.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 32¢ | 84¢ | $10 | $26 | +$16 (+164%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 27¢ | 22¢ | $20 | $17 | −$3 (-17%) |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 41¢ | 58¢ | $5 | $7 | +$2 (+43%) |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 3¢ | 4¢ | $5 | $6 | +$1 (+21%) |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? | Yes | 30¢ | 32¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? | Yes | 37¢ | 36¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? | Yes | 77¢ | 82¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+6%) |
| Will the US federal government take a stake in IonQ, Inc.? | Yes | 37¢ | 18¢ | $5 | $2 | −$3 (-53%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -91% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$3 | -69% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | Jun 14 | $5 | −$2 | -50% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | Jun 10 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on | Jun 05 | $7 | −$7 | -97% |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 26 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? | May 25 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in May? | May 24 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by May 31? | May 24 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | May 24 | $5 | +$11 | +220% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 24 | $5 | +$18 | +353% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? | May 23 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Mi, socialisti! (Mi!) be part of the next Government of Slovenia? | May 21 | $5 | −$5 | -96% |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? | May 21 | $10 | +$10 | +96% |
| Will Donald Trump announce Matt Gaetz as the next United States Attorn | May 20 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | May 20 | $30 | −$3 | -11% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 20 | $5 | +$1 | +25% |