Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3437…f8f3 world 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$13,287 (+6%) realized +$7,906 · open +$7,721
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%50W / 46L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,128per market
Trades / day65.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$25,336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,778
7 days+$10,737
14 days+$6,817
30 days−$3,900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$12,913
other 5% +$2,593
tech 3% −$2,631
crypto 2% +$2,785
finance 1% −$792
economics 0% +$922
politics 0% −$164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +61.0% +45.7% 63% 43% +23.3%
≤30d 72 +19.2% +7.9% 47% 31% -10.8%
≤90d 96 +15.9% +4.8% 52% 36% -4.7%
all 96 +15.9% +4.8% 52% 36% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.8% 36% -4.7%
10% -5.2% 25% -13.8%
15% ← realistic here -14.3% 20% -22.1%
20% -22.7% 12% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$2,162) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
23.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$630 vs −$513 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$25,336
Realized+$7,906
Unrealized+$7,721
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses50 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Open positions14
Markets (closed)96 / 110
History coverage52d
Avg bet$2,128
Trades / day65.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 49¢ 73¢ $11,061 $16,554 +$5,493 (+50%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 38¢ 78¢ $2,361 $4,934 +$2,573 (+109%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,327 $1,297 −$30 (-2%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $830 $960 +$130 (+16%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1,264 $713 −$551 (-44%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $107 $270 +$162 (+151%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $191 $195 +$4 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 31¢ 74¢ $47 $113 +$66 (+138%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $112 $92 −$20 (-18%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 54¢ 27¢ $145 $72 −$73 (-50%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $60 $53 −$7 (-12%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $59 $42 −$17 (-29%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $51 $41 −$10 (-19%)
Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $260 $0 −$260 (-100%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $316 $0 −$316 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Trump kiss by May 31? No 42¢ 0¢ $167 $0 −$167 (-100%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,335 +$974 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,652 +$4,991 +302%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $208 −$101 -49%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $300 +$37 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,214 +$493 +41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $95 −$47 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $4,357 +$999 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 14 $114 +$45 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $1,297 −$567 -44%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 13 $70 −$20 -29%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 13 $29 +$161 +566%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $263 −$196 -74%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $500 +$11 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $51 −$41 -79%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2,960 −$180 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $1,143 +$535 +47%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $1,157 +$253 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $1,758 +$153 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2,139 +$53 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $521 +$42 +8%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $49 +$3 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 09 $391 −$76 -19%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4,310 +$148 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 09 $63 −$35 -55%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $485 +$534 +110%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $600 +$1,038 +173%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $104 +$664 +638%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $98 −$18 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,800 −$1 -0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $496 +$885 +178%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $4,377 −$2,832 -65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $480 +$48 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $450 +$96 +21%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $500 +$157 +31%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,624 +$2,628 +57%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $246 −$84 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25,227 −$3,934 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $2,821 −$2,034 -72%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $834 −$693 -83%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $5,764 −$3,601 -62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $7,701 −$1,197 -16%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $827 −$653 -79%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 28 $778 −$18 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $854 −$579 -68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $820 −$153 -19%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 26 $63 −$21 -33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $8,211 +$172 +2%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 26 $826 +$1,023 +124%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 26 $544 −$274 -50%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $196 +$932 +475%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $2,269 7m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $100 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,420 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,106 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,390 14m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,399 16m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $117 21m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $347 22m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $2,021 28m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $106 30m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 32m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $21 32m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $243 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $77 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $67 36m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $552 37m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $380 38m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $546 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $20 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $20 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $279 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $287 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 43m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $20 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $11 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $2 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $34 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $56 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $40 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,336.04 · official $25,336.22 (match) · 3500 history records