Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:53:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3439…5ddc
other · 38 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses33 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage49d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 1 History 37 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14? May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 10 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 7? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 04 $14 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 26? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% +$1
crypto 38% −$1
weather 7% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 4d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $9 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 9d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 17d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $12 22d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $6 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? BUY No 99¢ $9 25d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 27d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 28d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 30d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $11 31d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 32d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $1 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $1 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 37 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.01 · official $12.01 (match) · 79 history records