Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:18:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3439…930f crypto 68 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$67 (-2%) realized −$75 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%35W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$408now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$344
other 18% +$73
sports 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -13.2% -21.5% 55% 38% -21.0%
≤30d 64 -13.2% -21.5% 55% 38% -21.0%
≤90d 64 -13.2% -21.5% 55% 38% -21.0%
all 64 -13.2% -21.5% 55% 38% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.5% 38% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 30% -28.5%
15% -35.8% 20% -35.4%
20% -42.1% 14% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$19 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$408
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses35 / 29
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage3d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 49¢ 52¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET Jun 24 $206 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET Jun 24 $180 −$62 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET Jun 24 $58 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET Jun 24 $122 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $59 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $206 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $219 −$49 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $580 −$200 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $208 +$58 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2AM ET Jun 24 $103 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $206 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $31 +$33 +105%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Team to Take First Corner Jun 23 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +84%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$3 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $51 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $70 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $68 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $59 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $58 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $58 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $58 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $56 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $59 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $55 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $54 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $59 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $57 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $56 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $54 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $53 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.63 · official $407.63 (match) · 166 history records