Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:51:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
34 0x3449…4030 sports 376 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,660 (-1%) realized −$1,917 · open +$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%157W / 214L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1,385est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$3,993now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$370
7 days+$1,862
14 days+$2,138
30 days+$1,024
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$6,299
other 18% +$4,085
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.8% -11.2% 58% 58% +29.8%
≤30d 131 -0.9% -10.3% 47% 44% -7.0%
≤90d 371 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 41% -11.4%
all 371 -12.1% -20.5% 42% 41% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 41% -11.4%
10% -28.1% 40% -19.8%
15% -35.0% 37% -27.6%
20% -41.4% 33% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$256 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$3,993
Realized−$1,917
Unrealized+$257
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses157 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,385
Open positions5
Markets (closed)371 / 376
History coverage68d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half No 80¢ 78¢ $1,800 $1,754 −$46 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 94¢ $529 $907 +$378 (+71%)
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Over 82¢ 80¢ $730 $713 −$17 (-2%)
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 51¢ 44¢ $395 $345 −$50 (-13%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 20¢ 20¢ $282 $274 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $707 +$370 +52%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $176 +$67 +38%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $906 +$1,029 +114%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $115 −$113 -98%
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $234 +$202 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $245 −$242 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $482 −$475 -99%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $249 +$57 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $679 +$910 +134%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $424 +$133 +32%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $121 −$118 -98%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $29 −$28 -97%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$35 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1,146 −$1,130 -98%
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $309 +$141 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,081 +$471 +44%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Jun 12 $158 +$220 +140%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $845 −$835 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $322 +$167 +52%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $323 +$167 +52%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $89 +$161 +180%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO5) - MPL Ind Jun 11 $172 +$52 +30%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $113 −$111 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $113 −$111 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $19 +$46 +244%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $89 −$87 -98%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $59 −$58 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $433 −$429 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Jun 11 $82 −$81 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $79 −$79 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $184 −$181 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $129 +$12 +9%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $222 +$80 +36%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $151 +$299 +197%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $610 +$230 +38%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 W Jun 10 $64 +$280 +434%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $60 +$290 +480%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $29 −$28 -98%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $431 +$216 +50%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $836 +$331 +40%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $96 −$95 -98%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Play-In Jun 09 $154 −$152 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $169 −$167 -98%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $189 −$186 -98%
LoL: FN Esports vs Verdant (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss Stage Jun 09 $122 −$20 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $536 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 80¢ $1,811 1h
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Seaso BUY T1 Academy 51¢ $401 17h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $371 34h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $363 34h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $707 37h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $46 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 41¢ $115 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $21 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $885 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 72¢ $176 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 20¢ $288 2d
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) BUY Hive 45¢ $30 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $245 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $234 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $279 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $203 3d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $124 4d
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group BUY CHAOS 40¢ $125 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $679 5d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 77¢ $178 6d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 75¢ $84 6d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 74¢ $161 6d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 16¢ $121 7d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 1 Winner BUY Minkens finest 9¢ $29 8d
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 1 Winner BUY Gaming By Legends 10¢ $36 8d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $337 8d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $810 8d
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 22¢ $3 8d
Map Handicap: HERO.A (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) BUY HEROIC Academy 20¢ $38 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,992.87 · official $3,992.87 (match) · 730 history records