Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x344a…70cb other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$41 (-0%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$7
sports 19% −$7
politics 19% −$10
crypto 10% −$4
economics 8% −$2
tech 6% −$6
world 6% −$5
culture 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.0% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 107 -0.0% -9.5% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage170d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 06 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $143 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $860 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 05 $771 −$3 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 05 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 05 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 05 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 05 $138 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 05 $145 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 05 $337 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 05 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 05 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 05 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $1,062 −$4 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $1,304 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $278 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $160 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $523 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 04 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $5 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Rouhani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $330 −$3 -1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $513 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $170 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 04 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $160 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $168 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 04 $171 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 13d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 13d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $47 24d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 24d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $60 35d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $61 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $50 43d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $50 44d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $147 113d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $148 114d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $143 115d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $143 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $144 115d
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $144 115d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $139 115d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $140 115d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 94¢ $152 115d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $152 115d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $152 115d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $152 115d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $3 115d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 96¢ $138 115d
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 96¢ $138 115d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $151 115d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $3 115d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $151 115d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $145 115d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $145 115d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.65 · official $55.65 (match) · 443 history records