Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x344a…b394 crypto 377 markets active 12h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,232 (+4%) realized +$2,237 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate67%252W / 124L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day127.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$842
7 days−$1,146
14 days−$1,068
30 days+$1,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,694
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +7.0% -3.2% 66% 56% -14.1%
≤30d 376 +12.9% +2.2% 67% 57% -6.7%
≤90d 376 +12.9% +2.2% 67% 57% -6.7%
all 376 +12.9% +2.2% 67% 57% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.2% 57% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -7.6% 46% -15.7%
15% -16.5% 38% -23.8%
20% -24.7% 27% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$86 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$2,237
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses252 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)376 / 377
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$151
Trades / day127.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $65 +$218 +336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $223 +$80 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $416 +$262 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $24 +$13 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $402 +$284 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $54 +$17 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$124 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $110 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $84 +$31 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$47 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $184 +$56 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $139 +$61 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $116 +$33 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $80 +$34 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $67 +$23 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $130 +$57 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $179 −$176 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $29 +$12 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $116 +$50 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$25 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $143 −$138 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $75 +$25 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $198 −$192 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$40 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $331 +$185 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $85 +$26 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $174 −$172 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $174 −$167 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $85 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$78 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $343 +$147 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $158 −$158 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $119 +$73 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $36 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $93 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $100 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $42 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $13 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $27 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $152 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $38 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $12 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $17 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.05 · official $15.05 (match) · 3500 history records