Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:10:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x344a…c521 sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate100%11W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$995now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.4% -1.1% 100% 75% -1.1%
≤30d 4 +9.4% -1.1% 100% 75% -1.1%
≤90d 4 +9.4% -1.1% 100% 75% -1.1%
all 11 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 36% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 36% -8.5%
10% -12.7% 0% -17.3%
15% -21.1% 0% -25.3%
20% -28.9% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$995
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses11 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage128d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Germany 99¢ 99¢ $995 $994 −$1 (-0%)
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 3 Wolves 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-02-14? Jun 20 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 20 $1 $0 +11%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Jun 20 $1 $0 +14%
Ohio Bobcats vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Feb 14 $2 $0 +8%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers Feb 14 $301 $0 +0%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $1 $0 +18%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A Feb 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Elon Phoenix vs. UNCW Seahawks Feb 13 $280 +$6 +2%
Men's Group C - Latvia vs. USA Feb 13 $1 $0 +6%
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A Feb 12 $291 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Germany 99¢ $995 2h
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Douyu Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY Wolves 99¢ $1 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 89¢ $1 2h
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-02-14? BUY No 99¢ $1 126d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY FaZe 90¢ $1 126d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers BUY Saint Louis Billikens 100¢ $300 126d
Ohio Bobcats vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks BUY Miami (OH) RedHawks 92¢ $1 126d
Ohio Bobcats vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks BUY Miami (OH) RedHawks 93¢ $1 126d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers BUY Saint Louis Billikens 99¢ $1 126d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A BUY Yellow Submarine 99¢ $200 127d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A BUY Yellow Submarine 99¢ $100 127d
Elon Phoenix vs. UNCW Seahawks BUY UNCW Seahawks 98¢ $80 127d
Elon Phoenix vs. UNCW Seahawks BUY UNCW Seahawks 98¢ $200 127d
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 99¢ $100 128d
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 99¢ $190 128d
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-02-13? BUY No 85¢ $1 128d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? BUY No 88¢ $1 128d
Men's Group C - Latvia vs. USA BUY USA 94¢ $1 128d
Dota 2: NAVI Junior vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Series 7 Group A BUY VP.Prodigy 89¢ $1 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $995.43 · official $995.43 (match) · 30 history records