Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x344e…019e sports 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,462 (-12%) realized −$1,447 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate35%62W / 117L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$827
7 days−$1,199
14 days−$1,913
30 days−$1,929
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$644
sports 31% −$1,496
other 2% +$71
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-39.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -61.9% -65.5% 19% 8% -47.3%
≤30d 150 -42.8% -48.2% 37% 19% -24.9%
≤90d 179 -32.7% -39.1% 35% 19% -25.3%
all 179 -32.7% -39.1% 35% 19% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.1% 19% -25.3%
10% -44.9% 15% -32.4%
15% -50.2% 13% -39.0%
20% -55.1% 12% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$31 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,447
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses62 / 117
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions2
Markets (closed)179 / 181
History coverage35d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $111 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $141 −$25 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $175 −$33 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$16 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $168 −$68 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $91 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$34 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $211 −$163 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $396 −$96 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $60 −$58 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $58 +$56 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $141 −$139 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $41 +$48 +119%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $58 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $102 −$99 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $92 −$90 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $27 −$10 -38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$15 +7%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $62 −$60 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 09 $12 −$1 -7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 09 $7 +$5 +73%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $6 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $66 −$65 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $69 −$68 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $12 −$9 -76%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $171 +$13 +7%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $54 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $115 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $140 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 36m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $100 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 42m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 6¢ $0 46m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 6¢ $0 46m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 6¢ $1 46m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 495 history records