Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x344f…9dec crypto 882 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$11,447 (+13%) realized +$11,447 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%531W / 683L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day120.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$8,323
politics 6% −$3,418
other 4% −$1,900
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (121 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 494 -95.8% -96.2% 2% 2% -78.5%
≤30d 1214 -21.8% -29.3% 44% 39% -17.4%
≤90d 1214 -21.8% -29.3% 44% 39% -17.4%
all 1214 -21.8% -29.3% 44% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.3% 39% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.1% 34% -25.3%
15% -42.2% 28% -32.5%
20% -47.9% 21% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +26% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$41 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11,447
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses531 / 683
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1214 / 882
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day120.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1214 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $36 −$71 -200%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$10 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $110 −$110 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $180 −$360 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$28 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $451 −$451 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$9 -200%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 5, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 8, 1:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $107 −$107 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 5¢ $244 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 5¢ $11 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 6¢ $161 2h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $88 6h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $145 6h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $250 6h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $75 6h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $85 6h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $194 6h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 50¢ $61 6h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 44¢ $24 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 49¢ $61 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 46¢ $321 7h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 8h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 29¢ $838 8h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? SELL No 1¢ $34 9h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 27¢ $270 10h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? SELL No 1¢ $1 11h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? SELL No 1¢ $15 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records