trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | Jun 13 | $8 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $9 | +$10 | +109% |
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -96% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $20 | +$34 | +166% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $8 | −$8 | -98% |
| Spread: Mexico (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $5 | +$7 | +146% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $10 | +$24 | +238% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $2 | −$2 | -83% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $20 | −$11 | -52% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $15 | −$14 | -89% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 08 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | Jun 08 | $8 | −$8 | -98% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | Jun 06 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Spread: Spurs (-1.5) | Jun 06 | $10 | −$6 | -56% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 06 | $6 | +$3 | +48% |
| Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | Jun 03 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $41 | +$34 | +83% |
| Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? | May 30 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $51 | −$50 | -99% |
| Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? | May 30 | $3 | −$3 | -97% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) | May 30 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 28 | $9 | −$8 | -98% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) | May 26 | $6 | −$6 | -98% |
| Will George Russell finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand | May 24 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Spread: Thunder (-3.5) | May 24 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| Spread: Knicks (-3.5) | May 24 | $5 | +$8 | +158% |
| Spread: Spurs (-2.5) | May 23 | $5 | +$5 | +101% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 23 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Spread: Knicks (-6.5) | May 20 | $10 | +$8 | +83% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 18 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | May 16 | $48 | +$1 | +3% |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | May 16 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) | May 15 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spread: Pistons (-4.5) | May 13 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Spread: Pistons (-3.5) | May 13 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Rockets vs. Lakers | Apr 22 | $4 | +$6 | +158% |
| Suns vs. Thunder | Apr 22 | $14 | +$1 | +11% |
| Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Apr 19 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Warriors vs. Suns | Apr 18 | $4 | −$4 | -98% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 17 | $3 | +$2 | +79% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Apr 06 | $10 | +$7 | +69% |
| Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit 30% by March 31? | Apr 06 | $29 | +$1 | +3% |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs | Mar 22 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 16 | -22.2% | -29.6% | 31% | 31% | -13.6% |
| ≤30d | 40 | -35.8% | -41.9% | 30% | 25% | -34.5% |
| ≤90d | 50 | -32.3% | -38.7% | 34% | 28% | -32.0% |
| all | 74 | -32.5% | -38.9% | 32% | 28% | -34.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -38.9% | 28% | -34.8% |
| 10% | -44.7% | 24% | -41.0% |
| 15% | -50.1% | 22% | -46.7% |
| 20% | -55.0% | 20% | -51.9% |