Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:20:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x345e…6bc7 crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d only
✗ bot/MM pace (112 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,872 (-28%) realized −$1,802 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day112.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$327
14 days−$892
30 days−$645
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$703
world 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (112 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -46.8% -51.9% 26% 21% -46.5%
≤30d 93 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 27% -19.1%
≤90d 93 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 27% -19.1%
all 93 -20.3% -27.9% 29% 27% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover112.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.9% 27% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -34.8% 24% -26.9%
15% -41.1% 18% -33.9%
20% -46.9% 16% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
26.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$42 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$1,802
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 66
Open positions7
Markets (closed)93 / 100
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day112.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? No 11¢ 10¢ $103 $85 −$17 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? No 0¢ 0¢ $62 $21 −$42 (-66%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 4¢ 4¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? No 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$2 (+30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $9 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $30 +$29 +99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$29 +107%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $53 −$43 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $42 −$40 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $105 +$15 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $60 +$166 +276%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $81 −$78 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $35 −$34 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $50 −$47 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $56 −$51 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$30 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $29 −$27 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$12 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $84 −$69 -83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $114 −$108 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $54 −$51 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $12 +$17 +142%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $60 −$57 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $99 −$94 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $13 −$13 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $41 −$38 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $88 −$13 -15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $11 −$10 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $18 +$15 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$13 -81%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $86 +$8 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $58 −$8 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $116 −$36 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $13 −$12 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 06 $8 −$7 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $179 +$59 +33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 06 $13 −$4 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $63 −$63 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $99 −$8 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 06 $71 −$16 -23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 06 $80 +$60 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 06 $171 −$43 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $119 −$119 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $49 +$130 +267%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 36m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $2 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $4 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL No 6¢ $7 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 31¢ $59 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $2 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL No 1¢ $3 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 16¢ $6 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 18¢ $7 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $4 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 13¢ $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $7 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 15¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 12¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.49 · official $152.31 · 3500 history records