Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:46:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x3461…fba4 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$329 (-3%) realized +$816 · open −$1,145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%29W / 15L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,623now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$237
14 days−$237
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$169
crypto 26% −$805
sports 11% +$349
economics 3% +$60
politics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.3% -9.2% 62% 50% -18.5%
≤30d 17 +2.7% -7.1% 65% 53% -16.3%
≤90d 20 +7.5% -2.8% 70% 60% -9.1%
all 44 +1.5% -8.1% 66% 55% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 55% -1.6%
10% -16.9% 45% -11.0%
15% -24.9% 36% -19.6%
20% -32.3% 14% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$75 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$1,623
Realized+$816
Unrealized−$1,145
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses29 / 15
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)44 / 56
History coverage219d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 14¢ $800 $446 −$354 (-44%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 6¢ $680 $167 −$513 (-75%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 86¢ 42¢ $300 $148 −$152 (-51%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $150 $132 −$18 (-12%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $98 $77 −$21 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 28¢ $120 $66 −$54 (-45%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$62 -61%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$76 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $252 +$107 +42%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $54 +$19 +34%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$13 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$97 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $226 −$224 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $106 +$58 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$20 -66%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 $0 +1%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 +$37 +37%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 11 $300 +$7 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 30 $121 +$50 +41%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 05 $120 +$56 +47%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? May 05 $217 +$81 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? May 05 $334 +$63 +19%
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Mar 08 $100 −$40 -40%
Ethereum all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 07 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 07 $10 +$15 +145%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in January? Feb 07 $100 +$96 +96%
Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 07 $300 +$76 +25%
Zama auction clearing price above $0.03? Feb 07 $668 +$120 +18%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $10 −$5 -50%
Brevis FDV above $300M one day after launch? Jan 12 $190 +$115 +61%
Brevis FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 12 $793 +$65 +8%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 04 $400 +$181 +45%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 01 $60 −$60 -100%
Warriors vs. Hornets Jan 01 $20 +$9 +45%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Dec 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 13 $20 −$13 -65%
Bulls vs. Magic Dec 06 $20 +$6 +30%
Cavaliers vs. Hawks Nov 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Nov 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 27 $300 +$56 +19%
Lightning vs. Capitals Nov 27 $100 +$12 +12%
Lakers vs. Bucks Nov 23 $20 +$8 +41%
Northern Illinois vs. UMass Nov 16 $100 +$9 +9%
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Akron Nov 13 $12 +$11 +89%
Eagles vs. Packers Nov 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election? Nov 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 19h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $203 19h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $73 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 8¢ $65 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 37h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 37h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $54 37h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $226 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 18¢ $52 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $140 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $106 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,622.83 · official $1,632.07 (match) · 125 history records