Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3467…4811 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%17W / 30L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$1
world 28% +$5
sports 7% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 3% −$1
politics 3% +$1
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 13 -6.9% -15.8% 46% 0% -9.1%
all 47 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 2% -9.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.48 per $1 lost it wins $2.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses17 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage452d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $46 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $28 +$1 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $36 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $34 −$1 -4%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 $0 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 22 $5 $0 +9%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 20 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Delhi Capitals win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 19 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 13 $40 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 12 $40 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 10 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will Celtics vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 10 $40 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 09 $51 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? May 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 07 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? May 06 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $8 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 21 $7 +$1 +15%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 19 $7 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Apr 03 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $43 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $43 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $38 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $1 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $39 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $4 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $2 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $43 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $43 15d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $43 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $10 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $10 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $40 20d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $43 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $42 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $41 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $42 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 127 history records