Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:51:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3468…3965 crypto 1028 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$339 (-11%) realized −$340 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%584W / 781L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day40.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$980
7 days−$964
14 days−$942
30 days−$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$215
weather 26% +$10
other 0% −$1
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 500 -74.0% -76.5% 15% 13% -60.8%
≤30d 625 -57.7% -61.7% 28% 24% -52.2%
≤90d 1365 -35.8% -41.9% 43% 35% -32.4%
all 1365 -35.8% -41.9% 43% 35% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.9% 35% -32.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.4% 27% -38.9%
15% -52.5% 16% -44.8%
20% -57.2% 8% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$340
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses584 / 781
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1365 / 1028
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day40.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1365 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? No 69¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? No 58¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? No 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? No 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Tijuana win on 2026-03-08? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -206%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Genoa CFC vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
LIU Sharks vs. Mercyhurst Lakers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$8 -204%
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-03-01? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$6 -201%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$6 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -201%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Thunder Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$10 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Antalya 2: Julia Riera vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 12PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$6 -205%
Paris FC vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Anastasia Zakh Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$4 -204%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. Delaware State Hornets Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY No 24¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 80¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 58¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.99 · official $6.99 (match) · 3500 history records