Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x346a…81bb
other · 169 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$12 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$199
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions83
Markets (closed)86 / 169
History coverage16d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 83 History 86 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$39
14 days+$30
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 43¢ 64¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 33¢ 52¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+56%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? No 68¢ 82¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+21%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+82%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 80¢ 93¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 70¢ 74¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 85¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 73¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? No 64¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 36¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 72¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 28¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? No 75¢ 76¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 76¢ 68¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 67¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +78%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -43%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$6 +152%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$8 +344%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $12 −$6 -51%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 12 $1 +$8 +813%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +46%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $1 $0 -43%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +27%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +9%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 09 $7 +$15 +204%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $6 +$2 +31%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +380%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$19 +1506%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $7 $0 -3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 07 $6 $0 +7%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $33 −$2 -5%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +3%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $6 −$3 -58%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 06 $6 −$5 -79%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $1 $0 +14%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 05 $4 +$4 +106%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 05 $1 $0 -17%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $4 +$6 +126%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $68 in June? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $12 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 46% −$25
world 18% $0
politics 14% +$24
tech 10% −$17
sports 5% +$16
finance 3% +$6
economics 3% −$2
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 3m
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $3 1h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 1h
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 3h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 95¢ $9 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 9h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 76¢ $4 11h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 4¢ $1 11h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 38¢ $1 13h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY No 75¢ $4 13h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $1 13h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 38¢ $2 13h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 83¢ $4 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 13h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 28¢ $1 14h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 16h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 19h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 20h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +106.8% +87.1% 49% 37% +8.0%
≤30d 86 +38.0% +24.9% 45% 34% -3.6%
≤90d 86 +38.0% +24.9% 45% 34% -3.6%
all 86 +38.0% +24.9% 45% 34% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.9% 34% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here +12.9% 27% -12.8%
15% +2.0% 17% -21.3%
20% -8.0% 13% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.47 · official $198.52 (match) · 496 history records