Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:18:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x346a…acc6 crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$340 (+30%) realized +$340 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$352
sports 1% $0
other 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +20.6% +9.1% 47% 28% +21.2%
≤30d 36 +20.6% +9.1% 47% 28% +21.2%
≤90d 36 +20.6% +9.1% 47% 28% +21.2%
all 36 +20.6% +9.1% 47% 28% +21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 28% +21.2%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 28% +9.6%
15% -10.9% 28% -1.0%
20% -19.6% 25% -10.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$20 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$340
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$63 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$25 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $104 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$34 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $59 −$50 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$129 +1103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$7 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$21 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $16 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$11 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$20 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $79 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $105 +$344 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$75 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$24 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $28 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $85 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 27h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records