Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:05:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
34 0x346e…cf26 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,347 (+28%) realized +$2,347 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$596per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$316
7 days−$316
14 days−$316
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$2,719
other 39% −$316
sports 5% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 0% -78.8%
≤30d 2 -36.2% -42.3% 50% 0% -78.8%
≤90d 9 +26.9% +14.8% 67% 44% +33.1%
all 14 +25.4% +13.5% 71% 50% +28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.5% 50% +28.5%
10% +2.6% 43% +16.2%
15% -7.3% 36% +5.0%
20% -16.4% 29% -5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$147 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.92 per $1 lost it wins $4.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,347
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage94d
Avg bet$596
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,263 −$316 -10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Geneva Open (Doubles): Kirkov/Stevens vs Frantzen/Haase May 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 29 $61 −$61 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 29 $1,575 +$675 +43%
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 28 $1,700 +$109 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 25 $613 +$1,280 +209%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 24 $244 +$559 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11AM ET Mar 24 $207 +$55 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Mar 22 $157 +$96 +61%
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se Mar 21 $138 +$26 +19%
Miami Open: Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez Mar 21 $70 +$89 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Mar 19 $96 +$6 +6%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Play Mar 18 $187 −$187 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 23¢ $412 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 40¢ $2,834 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,851 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5h
Geneva Open (Doubles): Kirkov/Stevens vs Frantzen/Haase BUY Kirkov/Stevens 43¢ $25 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $61 83d
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $857 83d
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $610 83d
Solana Up or Down - March 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $108 83d
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $886 84d
XRP Up or Down - March 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $814 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $613 87d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $244 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $43 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $154 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $9 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $157 90d
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se BUY JD Gaming 84¢ $138 91d
Miami Open: Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez BUY Adam Walton 44¢ $70 92d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $96 94d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Play BUY Eternal Fire 53¢ $13 94d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Play BUY Eternal Fire 53¢ $174 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records