Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:06:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
34 0x346f…5fe2 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$941 (+30%) realized +$936 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$942
sports 6% +$5
crypto 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +17.9% +6.7% 69% 62% +18.4%
≤30d 16 +17.9% +6.7% 69% 62% +18.4%
≤90d 16 +17.9% +6.7% 69% 62% +18.4%
all 16 +17.9% +6.7% 69% 62% +18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 62% +18.4%
10% -3.5% 38% +7.1%
15% -12.8% 38% -3.2%
20% -21.4% 19% -12.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$64 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.89 per $1 lost it wins $3.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$936
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 83¢ 85¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $289 +$157 +54%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $199 +$91 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $199 +$91 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $199 +$28 +14%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 −$63 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $55 +$7 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 +$146 +473%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,245 +$649 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $201 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $447 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $289 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $290 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $199 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $120 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 41h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $51 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $289 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 68¢ $199 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 88¢ $100 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $119 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $98 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $100 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $60 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $64 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $55 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $176 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $31 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,894 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,245 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $204.70 · official $205.18 (match) · 30 history records