Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:36:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3472…cc1b politics 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%7W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$4
sports 23% −$2
other 11% −$3
crypto 5% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 4% −$1
world 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
all 62 -7.0% -15.9% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses7 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage239d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $195 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $92 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $91 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $91 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 24 $1 $0 -50%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $95 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $101 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 18 $3 $0 +5%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $3 $0 -4%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 11 $92 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Osasuna win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 31 $1 $0 -50%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30? Jan 31 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $93 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 24 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 23 $94 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $95 $0 +0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $98 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $97 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 30 $96 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $95 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $198 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 03 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $96 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $101 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $96 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? BUY No 100¢ $92 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 32d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 109d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 111d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 113d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 118d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 118d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 121d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $95 121d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $95 124d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 124d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 125d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 125d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 125d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $93 125d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $93 126d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 126d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 126d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 128d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 128d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 128d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $92 128d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $92 129d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 129d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 242 history records