Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x3472…8770 crypto 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$146 (+9%) realized +$138 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%28W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$25
other 17% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -17.4% -25.3% 28% 28% -8.5%
≤30d 46 -17.4% -25.3% 28% 28% -8.5%
≤90d 47 -15.7% -23.7% 30% 30% -6.2%
all 83 -11.7% -20.1% 34% 34% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 34% -6.8%
10% -27.8% 34% -15.7%
15% -34.8% 34% -23.9%
20% -41.2% 31% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$15 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$138
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses28 / 55
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage156d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 64¢ 86¢ $31 $42 +$11 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$121 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $62 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $97 +$219 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $20 +$20 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $56 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $51 −$48 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$50 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$34 +231%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$23 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$29 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$26 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$45 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $40 −$38 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$24 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$20 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$12 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $46 +$29 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Feb 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $225 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $62 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $316 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $97 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $207 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $48 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $53 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $29 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $51 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $30 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $20 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.63 · official $88.63 (match) · 172 history records