Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3479…50c2 other 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$22
14 days−$29
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$35
sports 21% −$18
politics 10% −$8
culture 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$25
economics 6% −$6
world 3% −$2
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage138d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $216 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $521 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $485 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $468 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $307 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $338 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $259 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $240 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $292 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $368 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $344 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $199 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $711 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $119 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $447 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $387 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $298 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $357 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $160 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $188 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $126 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $308 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 11m
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 3h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $49 4h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $50 6h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $39 7h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $39 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 12h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 13h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 14h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 20h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 22h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 24h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 25h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 26h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 29h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 31h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 32h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $51 35h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 37h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 38h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 40h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 41h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 42h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.10 · official $49.10 (match) · 1510 history records