Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x347c…6b1f other 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,634 (+1%) realized +$1,500 · open +$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate82%42W / 9L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,940per market
Trades / day25.2pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$9,989now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$378
7 days+$2,604
14 days−$6,218
30 days−$1,889
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$1,305
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.3% +0.7% 89% 26% -5.3%
≤30d 44 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 16% -10.6%
≤90d 51 +1.1% -8.6% 82% 14% -9.0%
all 51 +1.1% -8.6% 82% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 14% -9.0%
10% -17.3% 4% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$5,567) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$349 vs −$1,498 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$9,989
Realized+$1,500
Unrealized+$134
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses42 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage53d
Avg bet$3,940
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $6,859 $6,815 −$43 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $2,717 $2,893 +$176 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $279 $280 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $2,291 −$757 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $1,853 −$654 -35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $10,110 +$504 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $30 +$5 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $3,212 +$171 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,768 +$232 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1,164 +$101 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $2,523 +$271 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 25 $5,567 +$505 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $988 +$12 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $6,203 +$195 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $2,275 +$225 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1 +$2 +149%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $1,498 +$156 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $439 +$25 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $7,056 +$689 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $6,271 +$729 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $1,810 +$190 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $6,355 +$631 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $3,294 +$287 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $885 −$326 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $4,871 +$523 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,430 +$68 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1,791 +$95 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $939 +$53 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1,655 +$69 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3,569 +$179 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,559 −$1,107 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $289 −$8 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $920 +$72 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4,879 −$1,740 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $9,534 −$7,619 -80%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,498 +$845 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,500 −$1,260 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $2,212 +$194 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $5,558 +$219 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,065 +$66 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $18,244 +$1,750 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14,856 +$1,506 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $11,959 +$950 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $11,221 +$984 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $9,470 +$268 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $10,512 +$853 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $5,448 +$503 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5,435 +$211 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $259 0m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $106 2m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $12 3m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $181 20m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $326 28m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $170 28m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $146 36m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $10 42m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $137 52m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $363 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $182 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $648 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $128 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $127 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $218 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $215 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $95 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $114 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $197 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $39 2h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $38 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $56 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 64¢ $123 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $128 4h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $319 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,989.24 · official $9,989.24 (match) · 1406 history records