Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x347d…bef8 politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$2
other 35% −$1
crypto 12% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 3 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 17 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage112d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $99 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $99 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? Apr 16 $100 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $100 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? Mar 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $96 1h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $97 15h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $97 8d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $98 9d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 25d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 25d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $99 34d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $99 35d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 37d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $98 39d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 40d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 40d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $98 45d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $99 46d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $100 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $100 67d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $100 69d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $100 70d
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $100 75d
Will Alexander Noren win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 100¢ $100 76d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 81d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 81d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $100 87d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 88d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? SELL No 100¢ $100 97d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $73 98d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $27 98d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $100 101d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 102d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $100 105d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records