Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:56:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x3480…3767 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$462 (+34%) realized +$462 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$454
other 45% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +36.3% +23.4% 100% 80% +22.5%
≤30d 5 +36.3% +23.4% 100% 80% +22.5%
≤90d 5 +36.3% +23.4% 100% 80% +22.5%
all 5 +36.3% +23.4% 100% 80% +22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.4% 80% +22.5%
10% +11.5% 80% +10.8%
15% +0.8% 40% +0.1%
20% -9.1% 20% -9.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$94 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$462
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $562 +$14 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $151 +$46 +31%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $36 +$14 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $108 +$35 +32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $464 +$358 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $488 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $174 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $88 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $47 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $48 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $40 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $57 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $151 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 8¢ $51 43h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 75¢ $108 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $146 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $287 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $29 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records