Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3480…30cf sports 39 markets active 2d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$55 (-26%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%5W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$38
14 days−$49
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$10
politics 14% −$24
weather 3% −$6
other 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +52.2% +37.7% 17% 17% -41.6%
≤30d 21 +17.0% +5.9% 14% 14% -29.1%
≤90d 31 -9.5% -18.1% 16% 16% -31.1%
all 31 -9.5% -18.1% 16% 16% -31.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 16% -31.1%
10% -26.0% 16% -37.7%
15% -33.1% 13% -43.7%
20% -39.7% 10% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses5 / 26
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 39
History coverage54d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AN Jun 17 $1 +$14 +1316%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -86%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $16 −$13 -82%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$5 -30%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$6 -31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $39 −$6 -16%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $14 $0 -3%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 31 $2 $0 -15%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner May 31 $12 +$17 +137%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1 $0 -13%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 25? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 24? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 24? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 24? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 24? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 24? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 23 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 23? Apr 22 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 42h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AN BUY $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 19¢ $2 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND BUY $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Nethe BUY 11¢ $1 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 AND Aus BUY 45¢ $2 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $5 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Bra BUY $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Qat BUY 14¢ $3 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars $1 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 28¢ $2 4d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 10¢ $1 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $1 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND G BUY $5 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $14 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $0 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 53¢ $0 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 53¢ $8 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $10 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 37¢ $6 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $10 5d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner BUY LOUD 38¢ $8 5d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 33¢ $5 5d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner SELL LOS 37¢ $11 5d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 34¢ $10 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $16 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 11¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records