Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3482…98e3 sports 123 markets active 16h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,671 (-21%) realized −$4,671 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate29%36W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days−$98
14 days−$317
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$4,095
other 6% −$425
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.1% -30.4% 30% 30% -10.1%
≤30d 19 -8.9% -17.5% 26% 26% -17.2%
≤90d 19 -8.9% -17.5% 26% 26% -17.2%
all 123 -4.2% -13.3% 29% 28% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 28% -28.9%
10% -21.6% 27% -35.7%
15% -29.2% 26% -41.9%
20% -36.1% 24% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$123 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,671
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses36 / 87
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage242d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (51 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 +$134 +131%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$122 +120%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $103 −$93 -90%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $153 −$151 -99%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 −$51 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$66 -66%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $103 −$16 -16%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 +$121 +230%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 −$150 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $205 −$10 -5%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $166 −$2 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $205 −$54 -26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $98 +$264 +269%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $203 −$200 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $464 −$464 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Feb 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Feb 02 $100 −$60 -60%
Jazz vs. Raptors Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bulls vs. Heat Feb 01 $100 +$335 +335%
Mavericks vs. Rockets Feb 01 $100 −$78 -78%
Hawks vs. Pacers Feb 01 $100 −$78 -78%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $500 −$255 -51%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jan 25 $25 +$141 +566%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Celtics vs. Pistons Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Jazz vs. Spurs Jan 19 $71 −$21 -30%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jan 19 $80 +$53 +66%
Raptors vs. Lakers Jan 19 $1,500 −$417 -28%
Trail Blazers vs. Kings Jan 19 $300 −$205 -68%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $1,067 +$1,377 +129%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $648 −$27 -4%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jan 13 $100 +$96 +96%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jan 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $257 −$209 -81%
Nets vs. Mavericks Jan 13 $100 −$29 -29%
Celtics vs. Pacers Jan 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Jazz vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $50 +$148 +296%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 13 $50 −$38 -76%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $400 +$255 +64%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $149 −$121 -81%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jan 12 $50 +$111 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $235 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 92¢ $224 34h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $26 34h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $7 34h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 34h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $2 2d
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) SELL Jordan $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 2d
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Jordan 12¢ $51 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $35 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $92 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $87 5d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $8 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $103 5d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $174 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 8d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $165 9d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $166 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $187 9d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 9d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records