Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x3482…fa0e sports 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,755 (+12%) realized +$2,766 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate64%150W / 86L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days+$1,160
14 days+$1,495
30 days+$879
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$3,228
other 6% +$352
crypto 3% −$764
world 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +22.5% +10.9% 69% 66% +31.0%
≤30d 129 +17.5% +6.3% 67% 65% -2.7%
≤90d 236 +23.6% +11.8% 64% 62% +1.8%
all 236 +23.6% +11.8% 64% 62% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.8% 62% +1.8%
10% +1.1% 61% -8.0%
15% -8.6% 59% -16.8%
20% -17.6% 43% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$99 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$2,766
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses150 / 86
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions5
Markets (closed)236 / 241
History coverage82d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 70¢ 68¢ $98 $96 −$2 (-2%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 69¢ 68¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 62¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $24 $20 −$4 (-16%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $383 +$236 +62%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $28 +$14 +49%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $32 +$7 +23%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $17 +$5 +27%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) Jun 16 $31 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $32 +$15 +46%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $29 +$4 +14%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $31 +$29 +93%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$11 +41%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $27 +$41 +149%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $28 −$11 -39%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$12 +44%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $29 −$14 -50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $162 −$110 -68%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $34 +$17 +50%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $71 +$3 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $71 +$29 +41%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $255 +$170 +67%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $54 +$146 +270%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $135 −$48 -36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $64 +$41 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $61 +$39 +65%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $516 +$533 +103%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$54 +110%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $55 +$45 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $110 +$48 +43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 +$66 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $124 −$122 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $91 +$36 +39%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $257 −$254 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $197 −$197 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $85 −$84 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $91 +$48 +53%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $199 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $75 +$291 +388%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $99 +$136 +137%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $486 +$263 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $118 +$130 +111%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $21 +$7 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $63 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 +$5 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $70 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $549 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $69 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $18 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $56 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $149 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $67 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 69¢ $26 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 82¢ $57 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $42 28h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $28 32h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri SELL PlayTime 100¢ $39 43h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $23 43h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $2 43h
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) BUY Yakult Brothers 66¢ $2 43h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $29 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $30 47h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY PlayTime 81¢ $32 47h
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $42 2d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 79¢ $4 3d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 79¢ $8 3d
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 79¢ $5 3d
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Lindorfitos (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 73¢ $31 3d
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European SELL KOLESIE 100¢ $47 3d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $32 3d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 88¢ $9 3d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 88¢ $5 3d
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 88¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.72 · official $178.07 · 1012 history records