Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3486…49ee sports 2306 markets active 1h ago coverage 222d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 222d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,695 (-8%) realized −$28,694 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%970W / 1442L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$524est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,016now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,412
7 days−$7,287
14 days−$7,000
30 days−$4,467
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$11,296
other 37% −$877
crypto 19% −$6,097
world 0% +$887
culture 0% −$27
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 162 -81.2% -83.0% 10% 9% -31.5%
≤30d 239 -43.3% -48.7% 26% 24% -18.2%
≤90d 1065 -16.1% -24.1% 42% 40% -19.1%
all 2412 -9.6% -18.2% 40% 39% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 39% -16.3%
10% -26.0% 36% -24.3%
15% -33.2% 33% -31.6%
20% -39.7% 28% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$69 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$1,016
Realized−$28,694
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses970 / 1442
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$524
Open positions8
Markets (closed)2412 / 2306
History coverage222d ⚠
Avg bet$147
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 2412 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 51¢ 50¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $116 +$16 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? No 15¢ 13¢ $77 $67 −$9 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Red Bull Bragantino vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2025-11-02? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Romania vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Basel 1893 vs. FCSB end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Espanyol end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-09-28? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-09-21? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2025-10-05? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. PSV end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bologna win on 2025-10-29? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-11-01? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Mallorca win on 2025-10-26? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-09-24? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Fiorentina vs. Lecce end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Lille OSC vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will OGC Nice vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Valencia win on 2025-09-29? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-08-23? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Leeds United vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Viktoria Plzeň win on 2025-10-23? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2025-10-24? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-04? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elche CF vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brann vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NK Celje win on 2025-10-23? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-01? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. FC Midtjylland end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? Jun 17 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Le Havre AC vs. Stade Brestois 29 end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2025-11-02? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. AZ end in a draw? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2025-10-26? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will EC Vitória vs. EC Bahia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2025-09-08? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-20? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Groningen win on 2025-10-19? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-09-20? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Torino vs. Atalanta end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-09-04? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2025-10-04? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Sevilla end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-25? Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. Bayern München end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $203 45m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $406 46m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 15¢ $81 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 12h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Senegal 95¢ $2,003 13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $507 16h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 23h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 36h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $529 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $508 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $820 39h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $425 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $416 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $12,426 44h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 22¢ $51 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 44h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $5,030 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $207 46h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $62 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $102 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $10,006 2d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $82 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 84¢ $1,005 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,016.13 · official $1,014.34 (match) · 3500 history records