Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:59:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3489…1dc8 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$26 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate89%42W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$17
other 9% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 34% -7.7%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 34% -7.7%
≤90d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 34% -7.7%
all 47 +0.1% -9.4% 89% 34% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 34% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 11% -16.5%
15% -26.0% 6% -24.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses42 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Playoffs Rune Eaters 77¢ 26¢ $16 $5 −$11 (-67%)
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group C Donstu Esports 62¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual Jun 26 $24 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 26 $30 +$4 +15%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed Jun 26 $10 +$2 +17%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 25 $25 $0 -2%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 25 $15 +$5 +36%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 25 $20 +$1 +7%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 25 $54 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch Jun 24 $10 +$1 +11%
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Reg Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Valorant: la Masia vs INTZ (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Dota 2: the bug vs GG Boom (BO3) - The International North America Clo Jun 24 $45 +$5 +11%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America Sout Jun 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 24 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$3 +11%
Valorant: OXEN vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 24 $52 +$1 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $40 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Iatcenko vs Zhuoxuan Bai Jun 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Valorant: REBORN vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group D Jun 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 24 $10 $0 +3%
Mallorca Championships: Abedallah Shelbayh vs Grigor Dimitrov Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs Alzon (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Valorant: KRÜ Blaze vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Alan Rubio Jun 23 $5 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Gabriela Knutson Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Alice Rame vs Caroline Werner Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $5 $0 +5%
Plovdiv: Imanol Lopez Morillo vs Inaki Montes Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Storm Hunter vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Soon-Woo Kw Jun 22 $6 $0 +7%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Hannah Klugman vs Tereza Valentova Jun 22 $20 +$7 +36%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Keegan Smith vs Juan Pablo Ficovich Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bad Homburg Open: Sinja Kraus vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 22 $10 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daria Snigur vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 22 $24 +$11 +46%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Valentin Royer Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 63¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 54¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S SELL D family 100¢ $12 1h
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season SELL DRX Academy 100¢ $12 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoff SELL INFURITY Gaming 100¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 86¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 66¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed SELL Spirit Academy 100¢ $12 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 81¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 87¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoff BUY INFURITY Gaming 94¢ $20 2h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qual BUY HULIGANI 72¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY Rune Eaters 84¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Playoff BUY INFURITY Gaming 75¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - GLuck Yungstar Closed BUY Spirit Academy 85¢ $10 2h
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 80¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Division One 80¢ $5 35h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 99¢ $10 35h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 93¢ $20 35h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 100¢ $52 35h
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 BUY Division One 70¢ $10 35h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 35¢ $1 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 37¢ $1 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Cleveland Guardians 48¢ $7 36h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Thunderpick World Ch SELL UNO MILLE 100¢ $11 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $1 36h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Cleveland Guardians 46¢ $2 36h
Valorant: Chivas Esports vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Reg SELL Chivas Esports 100¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.82 · official $24.82 (match) · 133 history records