Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:13:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x348e…00a1 other 50 markets active 5h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%18W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$10
sports 41% +$4
crypto 6% −$10
world 4% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -10.3%
≤30d 48 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -10.3%
≤90d 48 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -10.3%
all 48 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 38% -10.3%
10% -31.1% 35% -18.9%
15% -37.8% 33% -26.7%
20% -43.9% 29% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses18 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$10 +188%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +64%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +47%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $19 $0 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +474%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 +$3 +21%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +29%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +145%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $4 5h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 17h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $2 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 40h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 47h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $2 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.28 · official $4.28 (match) · 84 history records